Navigating the Post-ETF Paradigm: An Integrative Multi-Factor Model for Projecting Bitcoin's 2025 Market Cycle Apex

Abstract

Bitcoin’s market structure underwent a fundamental and irreversible transformation following the 2024 regulatory approval and launch of spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. This event catalyzed an unprecedented wave of institutional adoption, signaling the asset's maturation from a fringe, retail-driven speculative vehicle into an emergent institutional-grade macro-asset. This study moves beyond traditional cyclical models, which are predicated on historical, pre-institutional market dynamics, to analyze Bitcoin's valuation within this profoundly evolved landscape. The primary objective is to project the potential price apex for Bitcoin in the 2024-2025 market cycle by developing and applying a transparent, replicable, and comprehensive multi-factor analytical framework. A multi-factorial, longitudinal analysis was conducted using a combination of publicly available data and simulated datasets from Q1 2022 to Q2 2025. The model is built upon a structured, semi-quantitative framework designed to synthesize three core analytical pillars: (1) Macroeconomic Environment, quantitatively assessing the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate policy, US Dollar Index (DXY) dynamics, and inflation trends through correlation analysis and sensitivity modeling. (2) On-Chain Intelligence, utilizing a suite of metrics from primary sources like Glassnode, including MVRV Z-Score, LTH-SOPR, and Illiquid Supply growth, while critically evaluating the continued validity of their historical thresholds. (3) Market & Flow Dynamics, which integrates technical analysis with a rigorous, quantitative assessment of spot ETF demand versus daily new supply, moving beyond subjective interpretations of price charts. A transparent weighting rubric was developed to integrate the findings from each pillar, mitigating subjective bias and ensuring the analytical synthesis is replicable. The synthesis of the model's components revealed a powerful confluence of bullish factors projected to intensify through late 2024 and into 2025. The Macroeconomic pillar scored moderately positive, forecasting a probable shift to monetary easing. The On-Chain pillar registered a strongly positive score, driven by a profound and persistent supply shock, evidenced by record illiquid supply growth and sustained exchange outflows, indicating strong holder conviction. The Market & Flow Dynamics pillar also scored strongly positive, with institutional demand via ETFs consistently outstripping newly mined supply by a significant multiple. The model's base-case scenario, derived from the weighted synthesis of these pillars, projects a Bitcoin price apex in the range of $150,000 to $200,000, with the most probable timing for this peak occurring between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025. In conclusion, the findings indicate that the 2024-2025 Bitcoin market cycle is fundamentally distinct from its predecessors, primarily driven by a structural, institutional-led demand shock that interacts with, and is amplified by, traditional macroeconomic tailwinds and established cyclical patterns. The projected price apex reflects a market structure that has matured, with future cycles likely to be more influenced by global liquidity conditions than the halving event alone. This research provides a robust, transparent, and theoretically grounded framework for valuing Bitcoin in its new role within the global financial system and offers a template for future analysis of digital assets as they integrate with traditional finance.